What the dial means

Several indicators point to cooling activity ahead. Over 3–6 months, growth may disappoint — tighten risk and favour defensives.

The dial blends our stored indicators (yield curve spread, UMCSI sentiment & expectations, real GDP momentum, Fed funds trend, and building permits) into a single 0–100 score. It is educational, not investment advice. For deep bond-curve recession timing, see Bondonomics.

What moved the needle

• Yield curve (10Y − 2Y) Curve is positive (+0.54%) but not steep — cautious optimism.
• Consumer sentiment (UMCSI) Index of Consumer Sentiment at 48.2 — households' near-term mood.
• Consumer expectations Forward-looking expectations index at 48.5.
• Real GDP momentum Annualized QoQ growth (GDPC1) approx. 1.98%.
• Fed funds trend Fed funds roughly unchanged over 6 months (3.72% → 3.64%).
• Building permits Permits -2.2% vs ~12 months ago — leading indicator for housing.